a 10000 singapore dollar note with the face blurred out as a metaphor for satoshi nakamoto

Satoshi One Billion

Congratulations Mr. Nakamoto, at today’s exchange rates, you are worth just a tad under $1.4B US dollars. For those of you not in the know, Satoshi Nakamoto is the elusive creator of bitcoin, the world’s current favorite crypto-currency. Thanks to the excellent forensic work of Sergio Lerner, we can reasonably say he is also the holder of 1148800 BTC (bitcoins).

At today’s exchange rate of USD 1200/BTC, that makes him worth $1.378B, which would put him at no. 1086 of the world’s richest people. Yes that is right, Satoshi Nakamoto is the 1086th richest person in the world!

That said, he would have a very hard time getting a significant amount of fiat currency for his bitcoin. The leading exchanges are notoriously cash poor, and are unable to come even close to giving all their client fiat currency in any reasonable amount of time. As we also know, the velocity of money of bitcoin is very low, (but increasing slowly), which may bode badly for it’s future as a stable currency.

In Horizon’s opinion, there are 2 possibilities here:

  1. This is a temporal singularity event. In other words, there is dramatic and exponentially accelerating migration from fiat currencies to crypto-currencies going on. In this case, the value of 1 bitcoin is equivalent to the world’s currency supply divided by the number of bitcoin available.
  2. This is a bubble. There is too much liquidity at the moment, and that money has to go somewhere. When this liquidity corrects, crypto-currency values will crash much like all other assets whose values have ballooned.

(Disclaimer: I hold ~150 litecoin today)

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